下記会議の特別セッション(2セッション、〆切を少し延ばしています)を公募 企画していますので、まだまだ奮ってご投稿下さい。〆切6/10が近くて申し訳 ありませんが、数日程度の遅れは誤差のうちとして受理させて頂きます。 Chance Discovery and Managementは、人の意思決定の決め手になる新希な 事象をデータからの発見して利用するという新しい方向です。もともとデータ マイニングの問題として提起したのですが、最近の議論の中では計算機による 解析もさることながら、発見した事象を元に意思決定を行う人間の思考や発想 についての考察の重要さも強く認識されてきています(始まって数月ですが)。 ですので、広い分野に渡る皆様からのご参入を頂くことで健全に進展できる のではないかと考えております。 =================================================================KES 2000, Special Session on Chance Discovery
(Knowledge-Based Intelligent Engineering Systems & Allied Technologies) 30, 31 August, 1 September 2000, Brighton UK http://luna.bton.ac.uk/~kes2000/ *** SCOPE *** - The best way to predict the future is to invent the future (Alan Kay) -- A chance means a new event, which has possibility to become a significant advantage (damage) in the future life of people, if appropriate efforts are (are not) made. The difference of discovering chances from predicting the future is that chances may not really affect the future if people ignore the chances or avoid the risks. In other words, a chance is an entrance into the way of inventing or surviving the future, rather than the future itself - one has to open the door and walk through it. Two essential points of a chance (or a risk) are: - A chance is not a sheer repetition of past success, but a trigger of a new and significant progress. A source of chance is the explosion of potential motivations, e.g. potential desires of customers in a market. - New chances are more beneficial than past frequent success-patterns, because new chances are not known yet by your rivals. - New risks are more dangerous than past frequent damage-patterns, because you do not know how to avoid them. Example 1: When the first rain-umbrella appeared in London, people could not tell it would become a popular fashion - they rather felt it strange to walk the street with an umbrella. The difficulty of prediction is here: there was no time-series of umbrella sales before the first umbrella. But this was a chance anyway -- thanks to the efforts of advertising the merit of umbrella "umbrella protects you from rain," it prevailed around the world. This promotion is a human-information interaction for putting the chance (umbrella) into a real future fashion. If the umbrella seller was aware that walking with an umbrella looked strange, he could have found a chance of selling coats matching with an umbrella. Here we find it essential to stimulate potential motivations (i.e. the desire to avoid rain in London, and the sense of fashion of people in London),for putting a chance into a success. How can we discover the link between the potential (unknown) motivations and the new product which is unknown, without frequent patterns in the past ? Example 2: When small earthquakes occurred in Kobe and the north of Osaka(in Japan) from 1980's, people could not tell what they meant. In fact this was a fatal risk -- due to the stress in the land crust of Kobe, between the north of Osaka and the trough in the south-east of Japan, 6600 people were victimized from the big one of M7.2 in Kobe, 1995. If we knew that the past small earthquakes were causing heavy stress at the focal active fault of 1995, the risk would have been recognized and many people could have been helped.Here we find it essential to know the potential causes od risk, for avoiding a disaster. How can we discover the link between the potential (unknown) causes and the new disaster which is unknown (an earthquake of M7.2 is a totally different event from one of M3.0 in the past, even if both occurred in the same fault which quaked in the past), without frequent past patterns ? For both examples, the key issue is focusing attention to a new event which is significant for the future, not discarding it as a noise only because it is unknown. For telling the significance here, human- information interaction for telling the link between the potential motivations and the new event is highly contributing to chance discovery. Many on-going researches including the discovery of - new products worthy to promote the sales, and new good customers to send advertising mails, for exploding the sales - new risks which should be avoided in business and human life, e.g. new side-effect risks of a drug to appear in novel situations - new keywords in research papers showing pionieering and meaningful directions of research - new keywords in WWW which show attracting future trends and information visualizations, for telling how to put the chance into a real merit and how to avoid the risk, are very relevant to the session. New assertions about chance discovery on previous data are welcomed, as well as new data presenting chances. *** PAPER SUBMISSIONS *** The tight (and strict) paper dead line is June 10th, by which no more than 4 pages of IEEE format in http://luna.bton.ac.uk/~kes2000/#papers http://luna.bton.ac.uk/~kes2000/guide.htm is welcomed to be sent to me ***electronically***. The most welcomed style is a postscript file, gzipped and uuendoded. Please kindly e-mail me your will to submit and a short paper abstract, as soon as possible. この後もいくつかの会議・ワークショップを計画中ですが、また追ってご連絡 申し上げたく存じます。メーリングリストも一月で70名に達して議論が(ときど き)楽しく盛り上がっております(英語ですが)。登録を希望される方は私までご 連絡下さい。 大澤幸生(Yukio OHSAWA), osawa@gssm.otsuka.tsukuba.ac.jp http://www.gssm.otsuka.tsukuba.ac.jp/staff/osawa/ChanceDiscovery.html ---------------------------------------------- Assoc. Prof., GSSM, Univ. of Tsukuba, 3-29-1 Otsuka, Bunkyo-ku Tokyo 112-0012 Japan Tel:+81-3-3942-7141, Fax: +81-3-3942-6829 学会開催情報リストへ戻る